Heavy rainfall during March 1–2 affected Sunraysia, the Murray Valley and parts of the Riverina, regions accounting for approximately 85 percent of national table grape production. Losses in yield and marketable quality from the MY 2025/26 season have reduced available working capital for the new season.

Industry sources report that some growers have obtained sufficient financing to maintain normal programs, while others are reducing managed area or inputs, and some have faced liquidation. These constraints are expected to limit the production rebound.

Production is forecast at 205,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2026/27, compared with a downward-revised 195,000 MT in MY 2025/26 and 229,000 MT in MY 2024/25. Exports are forecast to rise by 2% to 120,000 MT, with fruit quality expected to improve from the unusually rain-affected prior season. Indonesia overtook China as Australia’s largest table grape export destination in MY 2025/26, largely reflecting a sharp decline in shipments to China. Australia nevertheless remained China’s largest source of imported table grapes. Expanding Chinese domestic supply and cold storage have reduced its import requirements, while Chile and Peru have increasingly focused on the U.S. market.

Imports, sourced almost entirely from the United States, are forecast to rise by 5.9% to 9,000 MT in MY 2026/27. These counter-seasonal shipments help maintain supply outside Australia’s main harvest period, although cost competitiveness of imports limit demand growth.

Domestic consumption is forecast to increase by 9.4% to 94,000 MT in MY 2026/27, from a downward-revised 85,900 MT in MY 2025/26. Improved production and fruit quality should restore consumption toward recent levels, following the unusual allocation of some lower-quality fruit to export markets in the prior season. Read more about Australia’s table grape recovery here.

— Story by Zeljko Biki, USDA Foreign Ag Service